2024
Volume 24, Number 2, pp. 78-111
Reconciling Gazan and Israeli numbers to shed light on the Palestinian death toll in Gaza
Philip Thomas
Visiting Professor Faculty of Engineering, University of Bristol, Queen’s Building, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK
The war in Gaza, which followed the large-scale assault by Hamas on Israel on 7 October 2023, in which 1,200 Israeli civilians were killed and 253 kidnapped, has led to the deaths of many Gazan citizens. Published figures are used to assess the risks faced by Gazans as a result of military action. Conflict data are often contested, and may contain inaccuracies and biases. This study attempts to reduce the source-dependent errors by analysing and combining estimates from the two sides, Gaza and Israel, as well as from the UN and from US intelligence sources. The study’s guiding principle is to give weight to both sides’ estimates, unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. While this cannot guarantee the results’ correctness, and considerable uncertainties remain, they may be as good as is currently achievable. Applying the bilateral principle, the total number of Gazan deaths to mid-May 2024 is estimated to lie somewhere between 30,000 and 35,000. Women’s and children’s deaths are calculated as between 41 and 44% of total Gazan deaths, much less than the percentage, 73%, of women and children combined in Gaza’s population. The proposition that Israel’s attack was indiscriminate is refuted by examination of statistics issued by Gaza’s Ministry of Health and its Government Media Organization. Children in Gaza have faced a 20% smaller probability of being killed in the conflict than women, while the risk of a man being killed was at least 80% greater than that of a woman. The higher overall risk for men reflects the high hazards faced by militiamen in the conflict. The lower risk for children points to attempts being made to reduce children’s casualties. Combining Gazan and Israeli figures, the estimated ratio of civilian to militia deaths lies in the range 1.4 to 1.7, with a central estimate of 1.5. While all civilian deaths represent tragedies, the statistical evidence from this study suggests that efforts have been made to reduce Gaza’s non-militia casualties.
Keywords: civilian deaths, risk